Big news for next week!

Below are some announcements that may impact the markets next week:

News

The US dollar is looking at a large weekly decline against some of the major currencies. The Yen has strengthened from 104 last week to 101.50 today and the Euro has appreciated from 1.3690 to 1.3870 having hit 1.3900 today. Dovish tones from the Fed could be the reason - either way commodity currencies like the Aussie have had a great run.

Consensus forecasting is a fickle business, especially when it comes to the Euro. For EURUSD the medium term forecast is a retreat to 1.30 but all we have seen is a gradual progression upwards (currently 1.38). Why are the analysts out of kilter? Possibly because they have not fully factored in the ECB's tolerance for low inflation (remember Germany's hyper inflation in the 1920s which ruined a generation of savers). While there has been recent talk of bond buy back schemes (which means printing money to do so) the ECB may only do so in extreme circumstances.  

Another point to consider is that the ECB is unwilling to let inflation accelerate because of the much larger ratio of fixed income assets that are held versus equity (unlike in the USA). Any fallout could hurt investments and growth.

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