Hirose News|August 13, 2012 11:16 AM

FX Weekly Update




Actual demand of selling has decreased from 80's to 78's, in order to lift the percentage of hedging before holiday. Since Japan may intervene at 77's, the dollar is being bought from 77.5's to 80's. However, as the dollar is likely to fall against the yen one more time, buying the dollar is not a good suggestion. Try to sell the dollar from 78.5's to 79's and be cautious of intervention once fall below 77.50.


Expected Range 77.35-79.50   Sell the dollar on rallies. If it falls below 77.50, Japan may intervene at any time.






Since the euro has become heavy against the greenback, it may try to fall below 1.2050 again. So try to sell the euro from 1.235 - 1.24's. Debt problem of Greece remains unsolved. If ECB decide to buy sovereign bonds in southern Europe, the euro will spring significantly to about 1.28 - 1.30, but Germany is still opposed to the plan. Investors are waiting for the decision of Germany on ESM, which will be made on September 12, but it would be hard for the euro to rise above 1.25 versus the dollar.



Expected Range: 1.2000-1.2450   Sell the euro on rallies

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