Hirose News|May 28, 2012 11:32 AM

FX Weekly Update




The rise of USDJPY stalled at 80.5's because:

1.       The daily resistance level drawn from the double top at 84 was at 80.23;

2.       The low limit of the daily Ichimoku cloud was at 80.334

3.       90 day MA was at 80.223

4.       Bollinger Band's center line was at 80.056

5.       Spot trade for late September has been executed from 80.15 to 80.5's



The dollar fell against the yen from 80.5's to 79.5's. In the near future, ichimoku cloud will keep thick and constrain the rise. Even if the 200 day MA becomes a support level at 78.572 or 78.20, there would still be an inclination to sell the dollar. The low is likely to be challenged this week. Net Yen shorts reduced by 16,300 contracts to 18,015 contracts.


Expected Range: 78.20 - 80.500 USDJPY likely to continue to fall with fluctuations.






After breaking the descending triangle's support at 1.3000, option barriers at 1.29, 1.28 and 1.27 were triggered and finally EURUSD broke 1.25 last Friday. It is now fluctuating and falling between -1 and -2 sigma of the daily Bollinger Band. Net short Euro contracts increased by 21,492 contracts to 195,361.


The up-coming re-election will decide whether the Greeks will quit the euro zone or not; public opinion surveys may hold the key to country bias. The Greek financial system is still in chaos so it is likely that there will be continued downward pressure on the Euro. With an increasing Spanish problem and also the 1.2000 ceiling posed by the Swiss National Bank, it would be wise to remain cautious. EUR/CHF stop loss orders have been placed below 1.1980. The euro might see a significant downside move if the Swiss National Bank fails to support the market.



Expected Range: 1.2330 - 1.2850 Sell the Euro on rallies.

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