Hirose News|April 16, 2012 10:30 AM

FX Weekly Update


We have seen a decline in USDJPY to80.50 since last month's Non Farm Payrolls produced a lower number than forecast (supported by China's recent weakness).  However, there has been no 'slump', rather a downward fluctuation.   New York Fed Chief Dudley's comments of "too soon to say economy out of danger" has increased bets on further quantitative easing.

From a technical point of view USDJPY is being supported by the daily cloud at 80, the failure of double top's formation and the down trend channel has confined a possible rebound.  Resistance at 82 is likely.

Expected range 79.40-82.20   Sell on the rally.



Having been 'risk on' China's disappointing GDP figures have since sent ripples though EURUSD.  Also the EUR has suffered from crosses in the Yen and other major currencies.

From the daily chart we can see that the EURUSD slid to the neckline line at 1.3000 (more precisely at 1.2975) of a head and shoulder after reaching 1.3485. The slump failed, however, and rebounded. The market still fluctuated inside the daily cloud, and fell from about 1.3193 since the support level of an uptrend channel turned into a resistance level.  It has now falled below the low limit of the cloud at 1.3055 and touched below  1.2975, which is likely to lead to targeting of 1.2850.

Expected range 1.2800-1.3180 Sell on the rally.

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