Hirose News|February 27, 2012 9:00 AM

FX Weekly Update




Monetary easing by the  Bank of Japan has triggered Yen selling but after that, a significant reason for Yen selling was the activation of stop loss triggers from the  short term speculators  and institutional investors buying Dollars to decrease their Dollar hedge selling when USD/YEN was trading at around 76.00

As of Feb 22nd the IMM Yen position of speculators is 17,257 lots long and possibly they have now cut  their Yen positions when USD/YEN reached 80.00

There have been strong movement in USD/YEN and related Yen crosses with technically bullish indicators for a strengthening USD/YEN (weekly chart of USD/YEN broke the kumo of the Ichimoku chart).  USD/YEN level may shift from 77.50-81.50 to 78.00-8300.

Expected range    78.00-83.00  Dollar bullish



Greece's second aid package was agreed on Feb 21st with the fear of a default now receding.  This has led to recent buying back of Euro short positions.

The 90 day moving average was broken on Feb 22nd which lead to bullish sentiment for the Euro.

We are surprised that the IMM's Euro short position is still significantly large and believe now that the EUR/USD will test  1.3600 in the near future.

Currently EUR/YEN has seen strong technical buying which will help the EUR/USD recovery further.

Expected range    1.3200-1.3600  Buy Euro first

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