Hirose News|February 13, 2012 9:00 AM

FX Weekly Update


The dollar yen looks top-side heavy from 78's to 80yen level due to strong selling interest from Japanese real demand exporters .

In many case, they will decide their internal export rate 1-2months in advance when they start the new financial year in April , so Feb and March will be the months when selling interest will become strong .  As Spring approaches oil demand will generally fall which will reduce dollar buying.

As mentioned last week, the Japanese MOF will find it  hard to intervene in a quiet market, even if level get close to 76yen.  The assumption is that they can only intervene at or below the historical lows.

Investment tends to slow for those with financial year ends at the end of March and dollar supply generally tends to be larger than demand in this period.

Expected range  76.0078.50



Due to the Greek problems  it is difficult to buy Euro/Dlr.

Political problems and the fear of default and uncertainty indicate that selling pressure of the Euro is still very strong.

1.343050 looks like technical resistance by the Ichimoku-chart and 1.3500 has strong psychological resistance with 1.3000 support.

The Net position of Eur still has a short bias with buying interest from 1.3000 down to 1.2965

Expectedrange 1.29501.3450

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