Hirose News|July 16, 2012 10:52 AM

FX Weekly Update




Viewed from a daily chart we can see that the dollar is getting heavy against the yen in the Ichimoku cloud since there are lots of selling positions at 80's. The economic downturn of the US, increased expectation for QE3, together with continued European problems and an economic 'downturn' in China have led to risk aversion and a heavy dollar.


Even though the dollar stopped falling at 79.018 (200 days MA), as it nearly closed at 78.911 (low limit of daily Ichimoku cloud), it is more likely to be sold by stop orders after breaking 78.80. Possible sell strategies from 79.5 to 80. Euro/Yen may drag it below 78 yen.



Expected Range: 77.80-80.00   The dollar is likely to fall so sell strategies could be adopted.






Although the euro stopped falling versus the greenback at 1.2150 and sprang back to 1.2250's, it is now fluctuating within the Bollinger Band, and therefore it is has potential to be sold. A break below the price of daily Chikou Span also suggests selling the euro. If the euro breaks below 1.2150, the next support level will be at 1.2000. And if it was broken, a further support level is at 1.1876 (June 2010).


To gain a long position it may be worth waiting until 1.2000.



Expected Range: 1.2000-1.2335   Sell the euro

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