Hirose News|June 11, 2012 10:17 AM

FX Weekly Update




Downside channel drawn from the high limit at 84's was broken at 79.5, meaning placing a buy stop order may be a good idea. Verbal intervention (but nothing real) also led to Yen selling and pushed cross- yen pairs.


Net Yen in IMM turned long, meaning the Yen finally stopped being sold. Expectation of U.S. data and QE3 caused dollar selling. On the other hand, persistent problems with Spain and Greece led to Euro selling. These two countries continue to struggle.


The dollar will be heavy versus the yen at 80.5's and we should pay attention to 77's for BOJ's intervention. The price range will be narrow in the coming week.




Expected Range 78.00-80.500  Fluctuations this week. Probably buy on dips in short term







Even though short positions may have been closed out up to 1.26's, there is no reason for buying the Euro. It may, though, be bought if ND and PASOK can form a coalition government, however, Spain continues to be a problem, even with an imminent injection of funds. As a result, we should wait and sell on the rallies. The low limit parallel to downside channel is now at about 1.2700.




Expected Range 1.2250-1.2700.  Sell the Euro on a long term basis.

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