Hirose News|May 21, 2012 10:34 AM

FX Weekly Update




The high limit of daily downside channel drawn from around the 84's was at approximately 80.25 on May 16.  Although buying positions increased after it was broken, selling positions for actual demand dragged USD/JPY again. You could say it was suppressed by the daily Bollinger's center line and daily Ichimoku cloud at the same time, the fall becoming more violent after it broke below 79.5.

Chicago's IMM's Yen position still remains net-short (an expectation of BOJ's monetary easing policy ) and still has 34,315 open contracts. Buying on rallies will be undertaken in large measure in order to activate stop loss orders. The possibility of a stronger yen is high, since the BOJ is unlikely to intervene by buying dollars.



Expected Range: 78.00 - 80.50  The lows will be challenged.







We saw a break below the support of descending triangle (resistance line from 1.3486 to 1.3381 and supporting line at 1.3005 horizontally).  Greece's re-election shambles and an increasing possibility of radical Leftist Syriza party becoming the biggest party caused an aggressive fall in the Euro.

Since the first party will benefit from a 50-seat winner bonus, if Syriza head the table, it will have enough power to renegotiate the bailout package or even quit the Euro. EUR/USD has broken below 1.2700 to 1.2642 and hit some big option triggers.

However, the latest survey which showed that the New Democracy party take back No.1, and the possibility of forming a unity government with Pasok pushed the EUR/USD back to 1.2795.  While continued uncertainty abounds it would still suggest selling EUR/USD on rallies. Besides Greece, Spanish problems are of continued concern and the Euro will be depressed until the Greek reelections.



Expected Range: 1.2550-1.2950  Heavy Euro until Greece's re-election on June 17.

Hirose UK cannot guarantee the contents of the website to be reviewed. The views contained in the [trading guide] are those specifically of the relevant trader only and are given as part of the trader's normal trading activity. These views should not be relied upon or interpreted in any way, whether inferred or implied, as a recommendation or advice given by Hirose UK or as having been authorised by any other person. Hirose UK has no authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of any legal entity and or other persons in connection therewith.