Hirose News|May 14, 2012 10:54 AM

FX Weekly Update




Anticipated Yen selling in expectation of increased BOJ's monetary easing policy clearly did not work well. USD/JPY fell below the low limit of daily Ichimoku cloud at 80.099 and triggered stop-loss orders, making it slide to 79.432. Any rebound will be limited, both from a technical point of view and actual demand.

Exporters who want to sell the dollar for the third quarter's hedge would like to sell in the  80s; USD/JPY is likely to be strongly sold from 80.5 to 81. There is potential for Yen crosses , especially EUR/JPY to drag USD/JPY down.

Expected Range: 78.50 - 81.00  The lows will being challenged and no intervention is expected.





EUR/USD broke below the low limit of the Ichimoku cloud and fell to 1.2903 after triggering option levels. While no Greek cabinet has been formed it is likely the euro in general will  slump further  in the coming week. Suggested profit target for shorts at 1.28000 in the short term.

One thing we should pay attention to is that net short Yen positions have increased by 40,000 contracts to 143,984 in total. Though the euro is getting much heavier because Greece is likely to face a second round of elections,  a significant move (from closing Yen positions) may happen as well.

Expected Range: 1.2650 - 1.3150  Sell EUR/USD on rallies. Significant fall may happen after breaking below 1.2800.

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