Hirose News|March 19, 2012 10:34 AM

FX Weekly Update



February Non-Farm payroll figures of 207,000 is now the third consecutive month over 200K which implies a expectation of reduced quantitative easing in the future. The greenback broke above 82 Yen and can be seen as bullish.

Market sentiment has shifted from Yen selling to Dollar buying. The Greek problem is now partially fixed, and, in the interim, the Yen will be sold, pushing the greenback even higher against the Yen. TheFOMC has recently intonated that the American employment market is improving and has raised the outlook for U.S growth; the prospect for QE3 has been significantly reduced.


The USD/JPY has been rising too fast (high 84.19)and may turn into a corrective move, technically this should be seen as a temporary move. The possibility of a continued rise of USD/JPY is high, and the key support will be at 80.00. Only a break below 77-78 will delay the outlook and give reason for concern.

Because the decline of exporters' demand for foreign currencies and the skyrocketing price of oil, importer demand for the greenback is increasing and the dollar will be strong in the interim. Buy on the dips.

Expected range 81.50-85.50


Since the EUR/USD formed a double top at 1.3485 in late February, we have seen a technical fall, with the price retreating to 1.3005 on March 15 after breaking the low limit of the cloud of Ichimoku Kinkou Hyo; it is important to note that the slide has not been aggressive.


Although the default problems of Greece seem to have been partially avoided, the election in April, how Greece executes its own rescue and the financial problems of the countries surrounding Greece will decide the movement of the euro in the medium term.


The problems of Greece can not and will not be solved easily. The terms that Greece has agreed to ultimately will fail so it is likely that the euro will be sold (the dollar buying) in the near future. Sell the Euro on any rally.


Expected range    1.3000--1.3360   

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