Hirose News|March 12, 2012 11:29 AM

FX Weekly Update



At the moment Dollar/Yen still looks well bid and should move steadily in the near future.

Recently world stock markets have been moving solidly with an upward momentum, allowing many fund manager to invest their funds into riskier assets, while selling the low interest Japanese Yen at the same time.


A Japanese trade deficit and the expectation for BOJ's monetary easing make short term foreign speculators very bearish on the Yen. The medium and long term trend of the Dollar/Yen has been changed from bearish to bullish, after this change in market sentiment. Real demand customers (importers) will buy dollars aggressively for their real needs and their activity will make the dollar's bottom more tough to break.


Expected range 80.00-83.00 Buy Dollar on dips





The fear o a Greek default in March has been avoided, but at what cost? Market sentiment has slightly changed to risk-oriented mode. Euro short position of IMM remains in the market, but this position should have strong support at around the 1.3000 level. On the other side, Euro's top side looks very heavy at around 1.3500.


From a technical viewpoint EURUSD's recent decline from 1.3485 (made a double top formation) continues, and this resistance looks strong enough for Euro to be traded as a range play for a while.


Expected range 1.2950-1.3450 Sell Euro on rally

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