Hirose News|February 20, 2012 9:00 AM

FX Weekly Update

< Dollar/Yen >



Yen selling has continued to strengthen,  triggered by monetary easing of Bank of Japan and has now risen to the 78 yen level. In spite of Japanese Exporter's Dollar selling orders, Foreign hedge funds continue to buy the Dollar against Yen.


As of Feb 14th the IMM Yen position of speculators is 29,459 lots long compared to the previous week, but still a Yen long position, with stops above 78's high, and 79's. Cross Yen buying pushed up the Dollar Yen higher as well.


It broke the 200 day moving  average and "kumo"of Ichimoku day's chart; technically it looks very positive for the Dollar yen, and if breaks 79.55( highest after BOJ's intervention on Oct 31)and 80.00yen, there is no clear obstacle between 80.00 and  81.50.

Dollar Yen sentiment looks very bullish and there is a possibility for Dollar Yen level to shift 77.50-81.50 from 75.00-78.00.


expected range    77.50-81.50  Dollar bullish






Last week, there was uncertainty about Greece's second aid package, but its possible an agreement will be reached as soon as today.  A debt swap ( 70% hair cut) with the private sector will help the Euro to go higher.


The 90 day moving average is 1.32834, Kumo of Daily Ichimoku-Chart upper limit is 1.32456  and can be viewed as resistance levels, but if it breaks then sentiment of the Euro will become bullish. Chicago IMM positions on Euro on Feb 14th were still  short.


expected range    1.3030-1.3420  Buy Euro on dips

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