Hirose News|January 30, 2012 9:00 AM

FX Weekly Update


The problems in Greece still remain.  Any viable solution is likely to see a 70% reduction in principal rather than 50% that the lenders are willing to accept at the moment.

In addition, it is more likely that interest rate on bonds is expected to be pitched at around  the 3% mark, a compromise that lenders are unlikely to agree to.

It appears that Greek  Finance Ministry is not overly concerned about the looming deadline for settlement of its debt, around the 10th February is the expected date.

The downside risk to the Euro/Dollar is still clearly visible: it is important to note the net IMM positions with perceived support around the 1.2500 mark.

FX market operators anticipate further downgrade of European countries as well as selling cash bonds associated with any lower rating. 

In terms of a Euro/Dollar trade, the emphasis would be to continue with the downward trend and pick shot positions on any strength that is seen.

Weekly forecast: EURO/Dollar  1.2830-1.3250

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